History of Capital Market Returns: Lessons from 97 Years

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            <h3>What Nearly a Century of Data Teaches Us</h3>
            <p>Our Monte Carlo simulator incorporates 97 years of historical market data (1928-2024), providing unprecedented insight into long-term investment behavior. This historical perspective reveals crucial patterns for modern investors.</p>

            <h4>Historical Asset Class Performance (1928-2024)</h4>
            <ul>
                <li><strong>S&P 500:</strong> Average annual return ~10.5%, with periods of significant volatility</li>
                <li><strong>Small Cap Stocks:</strong> Higher returns than large caps, but with increased volatility</li>
                <li><strong>Treasury Bonds:</strong> Steady income generation, negative correlation with stocks during crises</li>
                <li><strong>Real Estate:</strong> Long-term inflation hedge with diversification benefits</li>
                <li><strong>Gold:</strong> Crisis hedge and inflation protection, though with long periods of stagnation</li>
            </ul>

            <h4>Key Historical Lessons</h4>
            <ul>
                <li><strong>Market Cycles:</strong> Bull and bear markets are natural and predictable in their unpredictability</li>
                <li><strong>Recovery Patterns:</strong> Markets have always recovered from downturns, though timing varies</li>
                <li><strong>Inflation Impact:</strong> Real returns matter more than nominal returns for long-term wealth</li>
                <li><strong>Sequence Risk:</strong> The order of returns matters significantly for retirees</li>
            </ul>

            <h4>Modern Implications</h4>
            <p>Historical data informs our current strategies:</p>
            <ul>
                <li>Diversification across asset classes and time periods</li>
                <li>Realistic return expectations based on long-term averages</li>
                <li>Risk management through understanding historical volatility</li>
                <li>Patience and discipline during market turbulence</li>
            </ul>
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